The Predictive Analysis of The Crypto Market For The Second Week of April 2022. Could bulls clear the overhead hurdle in Bitcoin and select altcoins and extend the strong recovery from the lows?
Could Bitcoin bounce back sharply due to whale buying? Will select altcoins also turn higher in the short term? These are the questions roaming in the minds of crypto traders and investors. Also Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the fear zone.
Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from a high of $47,200 on April 5 to a low of $42,107 on April 8, indicating possible selling by short-term traders who may have preferred to lock in their profits. However, the price action is still stuck in a tight range during the weekend, indicating that supply and demand are in balance.
The bulls failed to sustain this breakout, allowing sellers to pull the price back below the breached resistance. As a result, the traders who entered above the $45000 level may liquidate their holding and accelerate the selling momentum.
Furthermore, the traders can expect a bearish retest to the old $45000 resistance for the upcoming week. This retest may validate the seller’s commitment to a further price decline.
However, the $42K level might serve as solid support. From the bullish side – the critical supply zone remains around the $47K level, which could initiate the next bearish leg and higher low.
In the bearish scenario, if the price loses the $42K support, a retest of the $36K level and the bottom of the bearish flag would be imminent. A bearish breakout from the base of the flag would validate it and form a bearish continuation and probably a new lower low below the $33K bottom – the lowest level for the past months.
The technical chart shows the BTC traders responding to a rising wedge pattern, and the current retracement phase is just a pullback to the support trendline. Moreover, the $40000 support aligned with the ascending trendline may provide strong support for bullish continuation.
Technical indicator-
The flattish 100 and 200-day EMAs suggest a sideways movement for BTC. However, the coin price trading below these crucial EAMs indicates the sellers at a better advantage.
The Relative Strength Index(45) slope nosedived below the neutral line suggested a negative sentiment among traders.
- Resistance level- $48,150, $52000
- Support level- $36,400, $36400
Ethereum Analysis
The shared resistance of $3580 and 200 DMA triggered a minor retracement in ETH/USDT pair. On April 6th, the sellers gave a strong breakdown from the $3300 support, suggesting further price correction to $3000. A bullish crossover between 50 and 100 DMA at $3000 support may provide dip opportunities to long traders.
During the recent recovery rally, the ETH price outperformed Bitcoin through a 47% gain in the last three weeks. The bullish rally hit the $3457 resistance zone, its highest level since early January.
However, the sellers took advantage of the current volatility in the market and slumped the altcoin below the $3300 support. As a result, the ETH price tumbled by 10% since last week and is poised to provide a weekly closing below the breached support.
The weekend is spent to retest the $3300 flipped resistance and confirm a genuine breakdown. The 20 DMA would assist sellers in maintaining trend control and dumping the altcoin by another 8.5% to $3000 physiological support.
The interested buyers need to watch this level closely as a bullish crossover among the 50 and 100 DMA at the support zone($3000) may bolster an upside reversal.
Technical Indicator
Vortex indicator– a bearish crossover between the VI+ and VI- slopes would provide additional confirmation for downfall.
The average directional index: Moreover, the declining ADX(22) slope hints that buyers are losing their grip on ETH price.
- Resistance levels: $3350 and $3600
- Support levels: $3000 and $2738
Altcoin Analysis
Polygon (Matic) Analysis:
MATIC price treads water on Saturday indicating a lack of enthusiasm among traders. The price shows signs of selling exhaustion as it approached a reliable support area that could be the key to a quick reversal.
However, in the longer time frame, the MATIC buyers look in trouble.
The recent downtick that led to a 13% descent in MATIC price from $1.44 attempted to breach the upper limit at $1.68 but failed to push through. As a result, MATIC sellers have been on the front foot, leading to a decline in the price.
On the contrary, MATIC’s price has the $1.44 to $1.53 demand zone acting as a key triggering level for the upside reversal. Therefore, traders can expect a bounce-back if the price manages to retest the mentioned level. In doing so, the price could recapture the $1.69 level.
Further, a break above the bearish slopping would reverse the prevailing downtrend with an eye on the psychological $2.0 level.
Technical indicators:
RSI: The Relative Strength Index looks bearish below the average line. It reads at 44.
MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence remains negative below the average line.
- Resistance levels: $1.7 and $2
- Support levels: $1.44 and $1.2
Enjin Analysis:
The Enjin Coin(ENJ) price rebounded from the breached resistance trendline, suggesting the trader’s sentiment has turned from selling on rallies to buying on the dips.
Furthermore, the post-retest rally drove the altcoin by 17.5%, nearing the combined resistance of $1.9 and 200 DMA. Can traders breach this overhead resistance?
The double bottom breakout resulted in the promoted bullish recovery of 44% in the ENJ price in the third week of March. The inflating prices hit the 200-day EMA after surpassing the bearish aligned 50 and 100-day EMAs and the resistance trendline.
The buyers stepping in at the right moment resulted in the post-retest reversal and inflated the prices to the $1.75 mark. The bullish continuation aims to retest the 200-day EMA, and if the buyers sustain trend control, an upside move to $2.16 is possible.
The buyers stepping in at the right moment resulted in the post-retest reversal and inflated the prices to the $1.75 mark. The bullish continuation aims to retest the 200-day EMA, and if the buyers sustain trend control, an upside move to $2.16 is possible.
However, the higher price rejection near the 100-day EMA opposes the bullish growth. Hence, closing below the 50-day EMA ($1.66) will undermine the bullish doctrine and result in a price fall to the $1.50 mark.
Technical analysis:
The MACD line shows a reversal after the bearish crossover reflecting the bulls sabotaging the increased selling pressure. Hence, the MACD and signal lines are ready for a bullish crossover and initiate an uptrend in histograms.
The 100-day EMA suppresses the bullish growth, while the 50-day EMA has supported a Doji formation. However, the 20-day EMA remains a critical resistance that the buyers need to surpass for a sustained uptrend.
- Resistance levels- $1.9 and $2.15.
- Support levels- $1.5 and $1.28
Mana Analysis:
MANA price faces multiple rejections near the $2.80-$2.85 supply zone. As the bulls lack the conviction to carry forward the gains on the daily chart. After tagging the recent highs at $2.85 on March 31, the price retraced 25% to the recent lows.
Furthermore, the MANA price sliced both critical moving averages of the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA at $2.58 and $2.44 respectively.
However, as the buyers found the multi-month support around $2.25, the price bounce backed to print some healthy gains is expected.
A sustained buying pressure would first meet yesterday’s high of $2.44. Next market participants would keep their eyes on the horizontal resistance zone at $2.95.
On the flip side, if the mana price breaks the vital support around $2.20 it would invalidate the bullish outlook. On moving down, immediate support is located around $2.0, the level last seen in January.
Technical indicators:
RSI: The daily relative strength index trades near the oversold zone indicating a bounce back is expected.
MACD: The moving average convergence divergence slides below the midline with a bearish sentiment.
Luna Analysis:
The LUNA/USDT pair represented its march rally resonating inside a rising channel pattern. Under the pattern’s influence, altcoin gave a decisive breakout from the $100 resistance on March 29th.
The post-retest rally drove the altcoin by 16.6%, reaching its new All-Time High of $119.18. However, the coin price turned down from the resistance trendline and nosedived below the shared support of $100, 20 DMA, and support trendline.
Furthermore, the aggressive traders who bought above the $100 mark got trapped in this fakeout, and their liquidation may drive the price even lower. Today, the LUNA price is 1.6% down and nearing the $0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $90.
As per the FIB levels, the coin price could witness strong demand at 0.5 FIB level at $81.6, followed by 0.618 FIB level at $72.6
Technical indicator
Vortex Indicator: The VI+ and VI- slopes nearing a bearish crossover could encourage sellers to extend the correction rally
DMA: The recent price drop breached the 20 DMA dynamic support level.
However, 50 DMA aligned with 0.382 FIB level, and 100 DMA near $81.6 support may bolster buyers to continue the bullish rally.
- Resistance levels: $100 and $120
- Support levels: $90 and $81.6
Summary
Rekt Capital, a crypto influencer, highlighted three key moving averages currently being tested as support, noting that historically, bouncing off them had preceded “strong bullish momentum.”
“Technically speaking, anything above ~$38000 is a macro Higher Low for BTC,” according to his tweet.
Luna Foundation Guard (LFG), a Singapore-based non-profit organization focused on boosting the Terra blockchain, has snapped up another $176 million worth of Bitcoin earlier this Sunday.
LFG now holds roughly $1.7 billion in the largest cryptocurrency. The massive Bitcoin stash is meant to prop up the native UST stablecoin, making it easier for it to maintain its dollar peg during extreme market volatility.
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