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Crypto Predictive Analysis for the Week of April 17, 2022 – Schadenfreude

by | Apr 18, 2022 | Cryptocurrency | 0 comments

Expectations remain that Bitcoin (BTC) will continue to decline in the short term, as price compression has become the dominant chart feature of the Easter weekend thus far, saving worried traders another plunge below $40,000.

The majority of cryptocurrencies are traded downward. Bitcoin, which leads the pack, couldn’t shake off the retreat.

The market is becoming boring because there has not been a significant price movement. A lot of analysts are predicting more dumps in the market.

Bitcoin Analysis 

The Bitcoin price witnessed a short-term bull rally resonating in the inverted hammer pattern. However, the recent sell-off in the crypto market has sunk the coin price to shared support of ascending trendline and $40000. 

The decreasing volume activity suggests a bullish reversal to the $45000 mark. Responding to the bearish flag pattern channel, the Bitcoin price plunged below the $45000 support on April 6th. 

This level acted as a crucial resistance last quarter, and a bear trap mounted on its breakout triggered a significant sell-off last week.

The BTC/USDT price dropped to the $40000 psychological support level during the freefall, registering a 10% fall. However, the ascending trendline aligned with the $40000 support, prevented a further loss and coiled the price action in a minor consolidation.

The inverted flag is a downtrend continuation pattern that intensifies the selling momentum if the coin price breaches the dynamics support trendline.

Conversely, If the Bitcoin price sustains above the $40000 mark, the buyers may trigger another bull cycle to reach the overhead resistance. Furthermore, until the support trendline is intact, the market participant can maintain a short-term bullish trendline.

Technical indicator

EMAs: The 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs are moving flat, indicating a range-bound rally for BTC. However, the coin price is trading below these EMAs, and with bearish crossover among the 20-and-50-day EMA suggests the sellers hold the advantage.

MACD indicator: The MACD and signal line dropped below the neutral zone due to the recent bear cycle. However, the decreasing red bars on the histogram chart undermine the selling momentum.

  • Resistance level- $45000, $48100
  • Support level- $40000, $36400

Ethereum Analysis 

The V-top correction rally slumped the ETH price to the $3000 mark. This support level aligned with the 50 and 100 DMA line stalled the ongoing retracement, and decreasing volume activity teases a bullish reversal. The potential recovery would surge the altcoin back to the $3600 mark.

The Ethereum(ETH) recovery rally pivoted from the $3600 mark on April 5th. The sellers put immense pressure on coin price as Bitcoin witnessed a flash crash below the $45000 support.

The correction rally tumbled the ETH price by 16%, bringing it to a psychological support level of $3000.

However, the decreasing volume activity during the pullback and a bullish breakout of the falling trendline bolster a reversal possibility. If this happens, the ETH price would breach the over ceiling of $3281 and rechallenge the $3600 mark.

On a contrary note, if sellers dumped the altcoin below the $3000 support, the extended correction phase would undermine the March recovery rally and drop the coin to $2750 support, followed by $2500.

Technical Indicator

The OBV slope indicator shows a relatively larger pump than that of price action, suggesting the increasing underlying bullishness in the price.

The 50 and 100 DMA aligned with the $3000 mark mount a strong support region for buyers. Moreover, a bullish crossover among these DMAs brings additional buyers into the market.

  • Resistance levels: $3281 and $3600
  • Support levels: $2750 and $2500

Altcoin Analysis 

Filecoin Analysis 

The recent bear cycle from the $27 resistance tumbled the FIL price by 32%. The altcoin hit $16.7 bottom support, undermining the late march rally. If the coin price sustains above the mentioned support, the FIL price will rechallenge the $27 resistance.

The FIL/USDT pair has been resonating between the $27 and $16.8 levels for nearly three months. However, during April’s first week, the uncertainty spread across the crypto market prevented the recovery from breaching the $27 overhead resistance. The resulting reversal dumped the coin price to the $16.8 support zone.

For FIL holders: the $16.8 is a crucial accumulation zone that provides an excellent bottom entry opportunity for long traders.

Alternatively, the $16.8 support fallout could sink the altcoin to $10 psychological support.

Technical indicator

Bollinger band– the lower band of the indicator, supports a bullish reversal from the $16.7 support. Furthermore, the extreme bands of the indicator aligned with the price action range provide an additional for a range breakout trade.

RSI– A failed attempt of the RSI slope to enter the bullish territory indicates a negative sentiment amongst market participants.

  • Resistance levels- $22.5, and $27.3
  • Support levels- $16.78 and $10

EOS Analysis 

The EOS price rebounded from the $2.12 support, indicating traders are buying on dips, and the price is likely to retest the aligned resistance of $3 and descending resistance trendline and 200-day EMA.

For EOS holders: Traders should keep a close eye on the $3 resistance as the potential rally could breach the descending trendline and 200-day EMA.

A bullish breakout and sustainability above this resistance would indicate a positive turn in traders’ sentiment, which gives the first target $3.7.

Alternatively, a bearish reversal from the $3 resistance would keep the pattern intact with the next bottom target till $1.9. 

Technical indicator

RSI– The RSI slope jumps back into the bullish region, indicating the traders are optimistic about a short-term rally. 

EMAs– The coin price reclaimed the 20, 50, and 100 EMA undermines the last correction in late March. However, the 200-day EMA aligned with the $3 resistance, strengthening the supply pressure for buyers. 

  • Resistance levels- $2.7, and $3
  • Support levels- $2.14 and $1.8

Cardano (ADA) Analysis 

The V-top rejection from the $1.2 resistance plunged the Cardano(ADA) price below the $1 crucial support and 50-day SMA. The sellers continue to pressure the altcoin leading to the March bottom support at $0.78. However, a possible reversal from this support could initiate a range-bound rally in ADA.

The ADA sellers regained trend control after achieving long wick formations in the daily candles near the $1.2, resulting in the 100-day SMA fallout. Amid the ongoing downfall, the ADA prices crossed under the $1 mark after saving immense selling pressure near $1.20. 

The freefall accounts for a discount of 22.5% in the last 12 days and the fallout of the crucial psychological barrier at $1. Moreover, the prices recently cracked under the 50-day SMA as the selling pressure grew.

The downfall in ADA coin price undermines the V-Shaped reversal observed in late March and heads lower after retesting the 50-day SMA fallout.

Technical Indicator

Vortex indicator– The widespread gap between the VI+ and VI- slope indicates aggressive selling in the market.

SMA– The downsloping 100-and-200-day SMA reflects an overall bear trendline, whereas the flattish 50-day SMA accentuates a short-range bound rally. However, the ADA price trading below these EMAs lines suggests the path to least resistance is downward.

  • Resistance levels- $1, and $1.1
  • Support levels-$0.85 and $0.78

Summary

On April 9th, Elon Musk was unveiled as Twitter’s largest shareholder and was widely expected to take a place on the company’s board. However, things took a U-turn when Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal announced that Musk would no longer be joining Twitter’s Board. 

The third-richest billionaire in Mexico, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, has shared his experience of living through hyperinflation. He warned that the U.S. and several other civilized countries are “going the same route” his country went through in the 1980s. 

He warned: “The bad news is that the U.S., and Japan, and the U.K., and the euro block — they are going the same route my country went in the 80s.”


A former professional rugby player, Adam S. Tracy brings over twenty years’ experience as an attorney, consultant and dealmaker with a particular focus on cryptocurrency, digital products, payments and immersive corporate structures. As an accomplished executive and advisor to blockchain merchants and stakeholders, Adam has proven himself as a results oriented, decisive leader with proven success advising early market entrants, technology adapters, as well as established participants across a wide range of blockchain verticals. Adam Tracy’s attack-first personality allows him to excel in dynamic, demanding environments including complex corporate negotiations, distressed environments and regulatory investigations.

In addition, Adam S. Tracy also has a successful track record co-founding blockchain industry ventures, building & leading cross-functional teams, and spearheading diverse corporate transactions. A serial entrepreneur, Adam has successfully started and created exits across a wide swath of markets, including various mobile SaaS ventures, cryptocurrency, peer-to-peer payment systems, and numerous token generation events. Moreover, as a recognized expert in the payments field, Adam Tracy has been a blockchain and digital currency evangelist and influencer since the early days of Bitcoin.

Utilizing his proprietary “Pre-Event Driven™” strategy for decision making, Adam S. Tracy further leverages his over twenty years’ experience to create cost-effective, value-add solutions for each client. A data-driven acolyte, Adam continually refines his strategies based on field studies and data collection. Moreover, Adam Tracy further augments his range of solutions by actively networking with regulators, liquidity providers, legal and compliance experts, deal-flow brokers, investors and management of leading high risk industry ventures.

Adam S. Tracy earned his Bachelor of Science in Computer Applications and Bachelor of Science in Finance from the University of Notre Dame. He subsequently earned his Masters in Business Administration from the DePaul Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, while concurrently earning his Juris Doctorate from the DePaul College of Law. Adam lives outside Los Angeles with his with his wife, son, four dogs, and two cats.

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