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Crypto Predictive Analysis for the Week of April 24, 2022 – The Hangover

by | Apr 25, 2022 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

Bitcoin continues to struggle as it stays under $40,000, the majority of traders are having a bearish sentiment about the market that bitcoin may bottom at $37,000 before we see any relief rally.

Bitcoin Analysis 

The fallout from the three-month-old rising channel teases further correction in Bitcoin(BTC) price. A successful retest to the breach resistance trendline has plunged the coin price below the $40000 support. However, a positive divergence in the RSI chart raises doubt about a genuine breakdown.

Key points

The BTC price gives a double bottom breakdown from a $40000 neckline.

Over the past three months, the Bitcoin (BTC) price resonated in an ascending channel of an inverted flag pattern. However, this price pattern could be quite deceiving as it violates some important horizontal resistance levels without a genuine follow-up.

The BTC price witnessed this activity with a $45000 fake out on April 6th, which triggered a significant sell-off. The sellers continued to pressurize the coin price and gave a massive breakdown from the inverted flag pattern on April 11th.

Followed by nearly two weeks of retest phase, the BTC price has tested the flipped resistance trendline twice. These reversals suggest the traders are selling on higher levels, resulting in a $40000 breakdown.

Technical indicator-

EMAs: A recent bearish crossover of 20-and-50-day EMA regains a bearish alignment among the crucial EMAs(20,50, 100, and 200). Moreover, these EMAs declining steadily suggests the sellers are in control.

RSI indicator: The RSI slope sustains below the neutral zone during retest suggests the traders maintain a bearish sentiment. Moreover, a recent breakdown below the 14-SMA may bolster the $40000 support breakdown.

  • Resistance level- $40000, $42365
  • Support level- $36400, $33000

Ethereum Analysis 

The Ethereum (ETH) price resonated between the $3160 and $3000 level for nearly two weeks, creating a narrow range. However, the sellers took advantage of the current uncertainty in the market and breached the bottom support. The range fallout may accelerate the selling momentum and slump the altcoin to $2800.

Key points: 

  • The 20 and 50 DMAs are preparing a bearish crossover
  • The MACD indicator forecasts a bearish continuation.

Reacting to the Bitcoin flash drop beneath the $4500 support, the Ethereum(ETH) price turned down from the $3600 resistance. The minor correction tumbled the altcoin by 16%, bringing it to $3000 psychological support.

Furthermore, the buyers struggled to sustain above the local support, creating a narrow range. However, this consolidation ended in sellers’ favor as the coin price breached the $3000 mark on 22nd April.

The sustained selling pressure may sink the ETH price by another 5%, bringing it to $2800 support. 

Technical Indicator

The MACD indicator shows a falling trend of the fast and slow lines slipping into the negative territory with a considerate growth in bearish histograms. Hence, the indicator forecasts a further continuation of the bearish trend.

The 20 DMA freefall is ready to crack below the 50 DMA to achieve a bearish alignment and signal a selling spot. 

  • Resistance levels: $3281 and $3600
  • Support levels: $2750 and $2500

Altcoin Analysis 

Cake Analysis 

The rising Pancake(CAKE) price is leveling within a falling wedge pattern. This recovery rally would soon tag the overhead resistance of $10, and a bullish breakout from this ceiling will surge it to $12.74. However, the interested buyers should remain cautious as possible fallout from the wedge pattern remains on the card.

Key points

  • The CAKE chart projects the morning star candle in the weekly time frame chart
  • The 50-and-100-day SMA is on the verge of giving a bullish crossover

The CAKE/USDT technical chart displays falling wedge patterns in the daily time frame chart. The recent correction from the $10 resistance had discounted the coin price by 30% and plunged it to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.

Furthermore, the CAKE price rebounded from the $7.5 support, suggesting traders’ perspectives have changed from selling rallies to buying dips. The V-shaped recovery has entirely regained the correction phase losses and soared the price by 26%.

The sustained buying will rechallenge the previous swing’s high resistance of $10, indicating a new bull rally is about to begin. If buyers offer a strong breakout and sustainability above $10, the traders can expect the next significant supply zone to be 20% higher at $12.75.

Until the falling wedge pattern is intact, the traders risk a free fall to the March low at $5.23.

Technical analysis

SMA: The rising 50-day SMA is about to cross above the 100-SMA line. This bullish crossover could attract additional buying and bolster the $10 breakout.

Vortex indicator: The instant spread between the VI+ and VI- slope reflects strong bullish momentum.

  • Resistance levels- $10, and $12.7
  • Support levels- $7.46 and $5.23

Polkadot Analysis 

Responding to the crypto market correction, the Polkadot (DOT) price action forms an inverted flag pattern and preps a breakout of the support trendline. Hence, the bearish continuation pattern may shortly showcase a support trendline fallout to retest the $17 mark.

A bearish reversal from the February 8th peak($23) triggers a sideways rally for Polkadot (DOT). Unfortunately, this V-shaped reversal tumbled the altcoin by 28.6%, bringing it to $17.18 support.

The pattern usually accelerates the prevailing trend, after a minor recovery such as this one. If the coin price breached the bottom support, the correction rally would extend and reach the Feb low support at $14.20.

On a contrary note, if buyers defend the support trendline, and rise above the 50-day EMA, the DOT price could rise to $23. 

Technical Analysis

The downsloping 50-and 200-day EMAs project a solid bear cycle, with the 50-day providing the recent hurdle rejecting the uptrend. However, a potential breakout of the 50-day EMA will reach the 200-day EMA accounting for a growth of 20%. 

The MACD and signal lines are ready to merge below the zero line and will potentially ignite a bullish crossover. Hence, the indicator is projecting a weak buying signal and will shortly make it official with a crossover.

  • Resistance levels- $22.5, and $27.3
  • Support levels- $16.78 and $10

Ripple (XRP) Analysis 

XRP price continues to extend losses after slipping below the crucial resistance near $0.91 on March 28. The price found reliable support at around $0.70. However, the limited price action suggests waiting for more confirmation before setting up any directional bias.

The price after briefly falling below $0.70 bounced back to revisit the psychological $0.80 level. However, the bulls lack the conviction to carry forward the gains. The formation of the ‘spinning top’, a bearish reversal resulted in the fall of the price.

Now, the price consolidates near the multi-week support placed around $0.70, a sustained buying pressure could push the price higher to recapture the horizontal resistance line at $0.75.

On the flip side, a break below the session’s low would neglect the bullish arguments for the price. In this scenario, the sellers would drag XRP to the lows of April 11 at $0.68.

In addition to that, a sustained selling pressure would open the gates for $0.65.

Technical indicator:

RSI: The relative strength index traded below the average line since March 30. But bounce back from the oversold zone on April 11  still trades lower. 

This indicates the pressure on the price still any uptick will result in a bounce-back in the price.

  • Resistance levels- $0.78 and $0.85
  • Support levels- $0.68 and $0.6

Summary

Bitcoin recovered from a wallet linked to a Silk Road hack in 2013 will be used to wipe out the debt owed to the U.S. Government by creator Ross Ulbricht.

Crypto exchange Binance has recovered $5.8 million worth of stolen funds originating from last month’s unprecedented Axie Infinity exploit. The funds were distributed over some 86 accounts, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao said in a tweet on Friday. 

The Central African Republic has become the first country in Africa to adopt Bitcoin as a payment currency. In a worldwide first, the National Assembly unanimously adopted the bill to help put the country’s plan for economic recovery and peace building on track. Gradually, Bitcoin is winning the race of global adoption.


A former professional rugby player, Adam S. Tracy brings over twenty years’ experience as an attorney, consultant and dealmaker with a particular focus on cryptocurrency, digital products, payments and immersive corporate structures. As an accomplished executive and advisor to blockchain merchants and stakeholders, Adam has proven himself as a results oriented, decisive leader with proven success advising early market entrants, technology adapters, as well as established participants across a wide range of blockchain verticals. Adam Tracy’s attack-first personality allows him to excel in dynamic, demanding environments including complex corporate negotiations, distressed environments and regulatory investigations.

In addition, Adam S. Tracy also has a successful track record co-founding blockchain industry ventures, building & leading cross-functional teams, and spearheading diverse corporate transactions. A serial entrepreneur, Adam has successfully started and created exits across a wide swath of markets, including various mobile SaaS ventures, cryptocurrency, peer-to-peer payment systems, and numerous token generation events. Moreover, as a recognized expert in the payments field, Adam Tracy has been a blockchain and digital currency evangelist and influencer since the early days of Bitcoin.

Utilizing his proprietary “Pre-Event Driven™” strategy for decision making, Adam S. Tracy further leverages his over twenty years’ experience to create cost-effective, value-add solutions for each client. A data-driven acolyte, Adam continually refines his strategies based on field studies and data collection. Moreover, Adam Tracy further augments his range of solutions by actively networking with regulators, liquidity providers, legal and compliance experts, deal-flow brokers, investors and management of leading high risk industry ventures.

Adam S. Tracy earned his Bachelor of Science in Computer Applications and Bachelor of Science in Finance from the University of Notre Dame. He subsequently earned his Masters in Business Administration from the DePaul Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, while concurrently earning his Juris Doctorate from the DePaul College of Law. Adam lives outside Los Angeles with his with his wife, son, four dogs, and two cats.

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